The future of product management has become a hot topic, sparking debate and even fear, especially following a recent conference talk provocatively titled “Product Management is Dead.” I want to share my thoughts on the assertions from this talk and the current state of product management.

The “Product Management is Dead” Controversy

The main premise of the talk was that AI is going to cause a major disruption in how product teams operate. The speaker envisioned a near future where PMs are no longer necessary because, with the help of AI, we will suddenly have 10x unicorn people who are masters of PM, UX design, and development. I just don’t think that’s how AI is going to impact product teams, especially not in the near future.

To be sure, AI will change some aspects of the work that product team members currently do. For product managers, AI can help summarize and synthesize data, such as voice-of-customer (VOC) feedback and transcripts from customer interviews and support calls. For developers, generative AI can write code to save them time.

While AI can assist with many lower-level tasks, it cannot magically transform a specialist in one key function — PM, UX design, or development — into a “triple threat” overnight. Mastering even one of these skills is challenging enough. If you’ve been fortunate to work with a “10x” or “rockstar” developer, PM, or designer, you know how rare these people are.

People are researching how AI will impact our work. One insightful research study from MIT analyzed the impact of AI on product development, innovation, and productivity. The study showed that AI helps people with the most experience and strong judgement the most. Workers with low experience didn’t benefit much. Thanks to Marty Cagan for highlighting this research.

This study’s conclusion matches what I found when I explored using Gen AI to help product teams with discovery. I described my conclusion in terms of Divergent vs. Convergent thinking:

Gen AI is strong at generating new ideas, but human judgement is better at evaluating the ideas and selecting the best one.

I summarized my conclusion in the slide below; you can also check out the video of my talk if you want to go deeper.

AI Disruption versus Economic Factors

In my experience working with product managers and teams across industries, the biggest factor impacting product management recently is not AI but the weak economy, which has hit the tech sector particularly hard. Unfortunately, this economic downturn follows a phase of incredible growth in product management, which is why recent times have felt especially challenging for so many PMs.

Having lived through several economic downturns – the .com bust, the mortgage crisis, and Covid – this one does feel different. I keep waiting for the layoffs to die down. The layoffs have diminished from their peak, but the length of time this downturn has lasted does seem much longer than in the past.

Data from Layoffs.fyi (which tracks tech layoffs) shows the peak of layoffs occurring in the first quarter of 2023, with the most recent worst quarter since then being the first quarter of 2024 (see chart).

Double clicking on 2024: January, April and August were bad months. However, layoffs have been consistently lower each month this year since August (see chart).

Are companies right-sizing across product team functions (PM, UX, and development)? Definitely. Is PM systematically being reduced or eliminated? No.

Adding to the confusion are specific actions by certain company founders. Most notably, at Figma’s Config conference in June 2023, Brian Chesky mentioned changes at Airbnb that were interpreted as eliminating product managers at the company. However, this interpretation has proven inaccurate. Later in the very same talk, Brian said, “Make no mistake, product managers are critical, they just shouldn’t be doing the job of a designer.” Brian also clarified in a tweet: “I should have been more clear. We morphed the function into an Apple-style product marketing function.” If you want to go down the rabbit hole to learn more about this specific topic, I recommend this article by Jon Harmer.

While the layoffs due to the economic downturn are happening at the same time as the rise of AI, I think each trend is happening independently and one is not causing the other.

Why the “Product Management is Dead” Narrative?

Returning to the conference talk: Why did the speaker choose such a provocative title? While I can’t know their exact reasoning, I can share some hypotheses.

Conference speakers often try to come up with controversial titles for their talks to spark more interest and attention. As a frequent speaker at product conferences, I can understand this desire. In the last 10 years, I’ve also hosted many speakers at my monthly Lean Product Meetup and have seen how a good talk title definitely makes a difference in turnout and response. I was at the conference where this AI talk was given and after the talk, many attendees were certainly abuzz about the claim that product management is dead.

The reality is that it is super easy for anyone on the internet to proclaim that anything “is dead.” Just like it’s super easy for anyone in a crowded theater to yell out “Fire!” Just Google “Agile is dead”, “marketing is dead”, or “social media is dead” to see what I mean.

Other people have pointed out that the speaker is the founder of a business that uses AI to automatically create PRDs (product requirement documents), so therefore they may have a vested interesting in selling the narrative that AI will replace PM.

Interestingly, I have not seen product thought leaders or leaders at top companies make the same claim that product management is dead. This absence, combined with my data and observations, makes me even more skeptical of the claim.

Product Management is Here to Stay

While the future is never certain and the PM community continues to navigate the challenges of a weak economy, I remain very optimistic about the future of product management.

Any time there is a disruptive paradigm shift, there will be winners and losers. In the last 30 years, we’ve seen several major technology paradigm shifts, including the internet and mobile. It’s hard to predict exactly how AI will evolve, but strong product managers will always be in demand, as will strong designers and developers.

As AI enables teams to complete lowers-level tasks more efficiently, PMs will have more time to focus on higher-level tasks like customer research, prioritization, and product strategy. This shift will likely make their contributions more valuable, not less.

PMs should be Leaning In to AI

All this being said, it’s clear that AI is a major disruption that is here to stay. As with any important new tech wave, product managers should be leaning in and exploring it versus burying their head in the sand. AI is not the enemy. AI can help you do your job more efficiently and effectively.

There are (at least) 3 distinct ways PMs should be thinking about AI:

1.     How can AI help me do my job better?

2.     How should we be integrating or adding AI to our existing product?

3.     What new AI products should we be developing?

I conducted a LinkedIn poll to assess which of those 3 topics was most relevant.

The first two topics were the most popular at around 40% each, which isn’t surprising since not many people are building a new AI product from scratch.

Luckily, there is no shortage of resources to learn about AI. If you’re thinking about your goals for 2025, I would encourage you to learn more about AI. At a minimum, it should increase your productivity. And if (when?) our AI overlords eventually weigh judgement on us, they may look at you more favorably (insert your favorite scary AI meme here: SkyNet, Roko’s Basilisk, or the Master Control Program from Tron).

Closing Thoughts

In all seriousness, this is a challenging time for product managers and more broadly all tech workers. When you consider the sheer number of tech companies and product managers, I don’t think the comments of a few individuals should cause alarm. But we are living through an economic downturn that has lasted much longer than those in the past. And AI is on the rise. My main point is that while those two trends are happening at the same time, they are not causally related.

What do you think? How do you think AI will affect the nature of product manager’s work? Do you believe AI will reduce the need for product management or not?

Please share your thoughts—I’d love to hear how you think the role of Product Management will evolve over time.

I was very sad to hear about President Carter’s passing. When he was president, I was 6 to 10 years old, so he was the first serving president that I learned about firsthand. I remember watching him on television, and he always struck me as a very honest and kind person. As I grew older, I learned more about Carter and his strong efforts to drive peace around the world, which rightly earned him the Nobel Peace Prize.

A Connection with Carter

Carter and I share a connection to a small, relatively unknown but special organization called Naval Reactors. The easiest way I’ve found to succinctly describe Naval Reactors is “NASA for submarines.” After graduating from Northwestern, I spent five wonderful years at Naval Reactors working on nuclear submarine design.

Why Not The Best?

In 1975 when Carter was running for president, he wrote a campaign autobiography book entitled Why Not the Best? This title came directly from a haunting question that Admiral Hyman Rickover, the head of Naval Reactors, asked Carter in a job interview in 1952.

The Admiral’s Interview

After graduating from the US Naval Academy and serving as an officer aboard diesel submarines, Carter wanted to apply for Rickover’s new nuclear-powered submarine program. In the interview, Rickover asked Carter about his class standing at the Naval Academy. Carter proudly answered, “Sir, I stood fifty-ninth in a class of 820”.

Unimpressed, Rickover then asked, “Did you do your best?” Carter started to answer “Yes, sir,” but then recalled times he could have done better. Carter finally gulped and said, “No, sir, I didn’t always do my best.” Rickover looked at Carter for a long time and then asked him a question he would never forget: “Why not?” Then Rickover turned his chair around to end the interview and began working on some papers on a table behind his desk. Carter sat there several minutes as Rickover ignored him, and then Carter slowly left the room.

Every officer who wants to work in the Navy’s nuclear program has to interview with the four-star admiral in charge of Naval Reactors. After I learned that Carter had served in the nuclear Navy, I bought a copy of his book and read it, excited to learn the details of his interactions with Rickover. Carter was a very thoughtful person, as he demonstrated in the 30 plus books that he wrote, which include a novel and a book of poetry.

Admiral Rickover and President Carter

Many people aren’t familiar with Admiral Rickover, but his accomplishments are on par with tech luminaries like Steve Jobs and Elon Musk. Very early on, Rickover saw the significant potential of harnessing nuclear energy to power submarines and ships. Through his sharp intellect, technical excellence, strong leadership, hard work, and tremendous grit, he turned his vision into reality. Rickover, known as the “Father of the Nuclear Navy” created Naval Reactors and led it for over 35 years.

Rickover retired several years before I arrived at Naval Reactors, but the organization and culture he created carried on in his image. My interview with one of Rickover’s successors, Admiral DeMars, was as memorable and stressful as Carter’s interview with Rickover was, and I too left it shaken and unsure (but that is a story for another day).

Returning to Carter’s story: After his interview, despite how poorly he felt it had gone, he was selected to join Rickover’s nuclear program. Carter was on track to assume a critical position: the engineering officer for the USS Seawolf (SSN-575), one of the first two submarines that was going to operate on nuclear power, when his father died in 1953. After his father’s death, Carter’s Navy career came to an abrupt end: He chose to leave the service to take over his family’s business.

Fast forward 23 years later to 1976, and Carter was elected president of the United States. President Carter became Commander in Chief, with Admiral Rickover now ostensibly reporting up to him. The two men had a wonderful relationship of mutual respect. In fact Carter said, “Second to my own father, Rickover had more effect on my life than any other man.”

The Navy has a hard rule that no one can serve more than 30 years. Because of his great work and unique talents, the Congress routinely passed special laws to allow Rickover’s time in the Navy to be extended so he could continue serving in his post. Rickover was in the Navy for an astounding 63 years, serving under 13 different presidents. Rickover would have liked to stay in his role even longer, but he was finally forced to retire at the age of 82 by President Reagan’s administration. Jimmy Carter was the last president that supported the continued extension of Rickover’s naval career, as you can see in the tongue-in-cheek note he wrote to Rickover when he signed this photo.

The Rickover Effect

While I never had the opportunity to meet Rickover, I feel like I know him – or at least know how his mind worked – through the strong imprint he left at Naval Reactors, which was a very special place to work. Many people involved with the Nuclear Navy have commented how Rickover impacted their lives.

Several books have been written about the amazing Rickover. I’ve made it a point to read them all and the best is probably The Rickover Effect, written by Theodore Rockwell, who worked closely with Rickover since the early days of Naval Reactors. If you want to learn more about Rickover without reading a book, you should check out this 2014 documentary about him. The main actor’s portrayal of Rickover is a bit campy, but it’s an informative and entertaining video.

The division I worked in at Naval Reactors (called 08E) was responsible for the design of the propulsion plants for the latest fast attack submarines. One group in our division was responsible for the Los Angeles Class submarines.

Each submarine class is named after the first sub of that class. The USS Los Angeles (SSN-688), the first of its class, was commissioned in November 1976, shortly after Carter won his election. In 1977, President Carter and his wife Rosalynn joined Rickover to visit the USS Los Angeles.

By the time I joined Naval Reactors, many Los Angeles class submarines had been built and they accounted for a large portion of our fast attack submarine fleet. The US sub featured in Tom Clancy’s The Hunt for Red October – the USS Dallas (SSN-700) – is a Los Angeles class sub.

Another group in our division, where my friends Ken Fine and Rich Shank worked, was responsible for designing the Seawolf class submarine, meant to replace the Los Angeles class submarines, whose design from the early 1970s had grown outdated.

Design of the Seawolf class started during the Cold War, and these submarines were going to be the fastest, quietest, and most capable subs the world had ever seen. When the Cold War ended, however, funding for the Seawolf Class dried up. The Navy had originally planned to build 29 Seawolf Class submarines. But due to their high cost, after the Cold War ended, only 3 Seawolf Class submarines were funded and built. The Navy’s plans were suddenly upended and it needed a new capable but lower-cost replacement for the Los Angeles Class subs. That is the submarine that I helped design, which would become the Virginia Class, starting with the USS Virginia (SSN-774). The Navy has commissioned 25 Virginia Class submarines to date, with plans to build over 60.

The five years I spent working at Naval Reactors were very formative for my career. There, I learned the art and science of how to design a technically complex product with cross functional teams. Although, I wouldn’t officially have the job title “Product Manager” until two years after I left Naval Reactors when I joined Intuit after business school, my job at Naval Reactors was basically highly technical product management.

Last summer, Naval Reactors held its 75-year reunion, which I attended. I had also attended the previous 50-year reunion a few years after I left. Yes, the organization is so long-lived that they only celebrate reunions every 25 years 😃. Turnout for the reunion was amazing, a testament to how strongly connected most people who worked at Naval Reactors feel to the organization even many years later.

At the 75-year reunion, it was an honor for me to meet the recently appointed head of Naval Reactors, Admiral Bill Houston. Admiral Houston’s distinguished Navy career started at Notre Dame’s Naval Reserve Officer Training Corps (NROTC). I have several friends from Notre Dame NROTC who knew Bill during college, so it was a special treat to attend the reunion with some of them.

The USS Jimmy Carter

Back to the Seawolf Class: Those three Seawolf subs are a rare breed of special submarine with unique capabilities. The first submarine of the class, USS Seawolf (SSN-21) bears the same name as the second nuclear powered submarine (SSN-575) – the one that Jimmy Carter was slated to be the engineering officer of before his father died.

The second submarine of the Seawolf Class is the USS Connecticut (SSN-22). Many submarines have been named after states, and Connecticut has a special place in US submarine history because it is the home of Electric Boat Division, which is one of the two remaining nuclear submarine shipyards and has a long tradition of constructing submarines for the Navy.

The third Seawolf Class submarine is the USS Jimmy Carter (SSN-23). I think it is very fitting that President Carter was honored by having one of the world’s most powerful submarines named after him. While other US presidents also served in the Navy, Carter was the only president to have qualified on submarines.

The USS Jimmy Carter was commissioned in 2005 with President Carter and his wife Rosalynn speaking at the ceremony. Carter began his speech by asking the large audience, “How many of you have had your personal life affected by Admiral Hyman Rickover? Raise your hand”. He then said, “Let me correct those who did not raise their hand.”

The USS Jimmy Carter is unique among the Seawolf subs: it is 100 feet longer than the other two due to the inclusion of an additional section – the Multi-Mission Platform. It also has special thrusters that allow it to quietly hover in place. While additional details of its unique capabilities are classified, the USS Jimmy Carter is known to be our country’s best submarine for undersea spy missions.

Here is a photo of the USS Jimmy Carter (fyi, it’s often be hard to find a good photo of a submarine since they are so long and most of the sub is usually under water).

The motto of the USS Jimmy Carter is “Semper Optima” (“Always the Best”), which I think is a wonderful homage to President Carter and his life.

President Carter: Thank you for giving us your best. Thank you for all your service to the Navy, to the United States, and to the world. Fair winds and following seas. We will miss you.